tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4219916865349368682.post2300299577149344586..comments2024-02-10T03:57:20.593-05:00Comments on King One Eye: Updated US GDP Analysis -- Mind the ShrinkageSean Brodrickhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11307875566403471653noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4219916865349368682.post-37934103136525057492014-05-30T11:13:43.389-04:002014-05-30T11:13:43.389-04:00Bloomberg: "Stockpiles grew at less than half...Bloomberg: "Stockpiles grew at less than half the pace than in the final three months of 2013, lopping 1.6 percentage points off GDP while businesses cut back on investment." There's your culprit right there.<br />I Will Never Accept The Terms of Servicehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09422355923256894207noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4219916865349368682.post-87442643907745799502014-05-29T16:27:45.660-04:002014-05-29T16:27:45.660-04:00Good point on the jobs data. But I think this kind...Good point on the jobs data. But I think this kind of data makes the Fed more cautious about tightening. And that makes traders happy.Sean Brodrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11307875566403471653noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4219916865349368682.post-19617124185065963252014-05-29T11:30:33.513-04:002014-05-29T11:30:33.513-04:00The market's rallying because of the strong jo...The market's rallying because of the strong jobs data out this morning. Q1 GDP is about the most backward-looking datapoint that you can find! Nobody trades based on what stopped happening 2 months ago.<br /><br />You can see the Q1 GDP weakness in $TRAN, whose was horrible in Q1, because of the weather (unless you doubt the word of the owner of BNSF, who explicitly said his company took a big hit from weather). $TRAN's 5% pop since April indicates the US economy has accelerated since. And a <300k job print shows significant labour market tightening.I Will Never Accept The Terms of Servicehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09422355923256894207noreply@blogger.com