Thursday, September 29, 2016

Looks Like It's Time for Fed to Talk Up Another Rate Hike!

U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is fading fast as money flees Europe. Looks like it's time for a Fed governor to draw the short straw and go out and talk about how multiple rate hikes are imminent.

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(Updated chart)

Update: Alert the Confusion Brigade. From Marketwatch: 

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he backs a December rate increase if the economy continues to grow as expected, while Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said he expects the Fed to be in a position to raise rates soon.

Fed Gov. Jerome Powell, on the other hand, said the Fed can afford to be patient in gradually raising rates as the economy slowly improves.

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Weekly Gold -- Time for a Bounce?

The Fed has entered a "quiet period" before its next meeting, and gold seems to be going along for the ride. Here's an updated chart. 

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(Updated chart)

If this channel holds true, gold is primed for a bounce. Potentially a big one.

Other stories of interest ...

ETFs backed by gold account for just 3% of the $3.21 trillion of assets held by investors.

The Fed is in a quiet period, but their agents can still massage the market. Wall Street Journal's Hilsentrath: Divided Federal Reserve is inclined to stand pat

Still, we should notice that bond rates are rising. If this correction to the big declining trend turns into a real rally (a big "if"), as gold investors, we have to be honest with ourselves. That could smack gold on the nose, at least temporarily.

China is in a new home-buying boom. Potentially good for commodities.

On the other hand, IEA cuts global oil demand forecast amid ‘wobbling’ Asian demand: 

Oil Bankruptcies Leave Lenders With ‘Catastrophic’ Recovery Rate, according to Moody's. 21% Recovery rate. Ouch.

Wars in Iraq, Afghanistan cost almost $5 trillion ... so far. Man, what could we do with $5 Trillion?