Wednesday, October 19, 2016

A Hot Trio of Gold Charts

Something to keep in mind. This week ain't over yet.

First, the daily gold chart ...

Visit to see more great charts.
(Updated chart)

Now, the weekly gold chart ...

Last but not least, gold miners ...

We need to see that this is more than a dead-cat bounce. But one positive sign is that gold ETFs keep loading up on the physical. Somebody thinks gold is cheap.

Thursday, September 29, 2016

Looks Like It's Time for Fed to Talk Up Another Rate Hike!

U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is fading fast as money flees Europe. Looks like it's time for a Fed governor to draw the short straw and go out and talk about how multiple rate hikes are imminent.

Visit to see more great charts.
(Updated chart)

Update: Alert the Confusion Brigade. From Marketwatch: 

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he backs a December rate increase if the economy continues to grow as expected, while Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said he expects the Fed to be in a position to raise rates soon.

Fed Gov. Jerome Powell, on the other hand, said the Fed can afford to be patient in gradually raising rates as the economy slowly improves.

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Weekly Gold -- Time for a Bounce?

The Fed has entered a "quiet period" before its next meeting, and gold seems to be going along for the ride. Here's an updated chart. 

Visit to see more great charts.
(Updated chart)

If this channel holds true, gold is primed for a bounce. Potentially a big one.

Other stories of interest ...

ETFs backed by gold account for just 3% of the $3.21 trillion of assets held by investors.

The Fed is in a quiet period, but their agents can still massage the market. Wall Street Journal's Hilsentrath: Divided Federal Reserve is inclined to stand pat

Still, we should notice that bond rates are rising. If this correction to the big declining trend turns into a real rally (a big "if"), as gold investors, we have to be honest with ourselves. That could smack gold on the nose, at least temporarily.

China is in a new home-buying boom. Potentially good for commodities.

On the other hand, IEA cuts global oil demand forecast amid ‘wobbling’ Asian demand: 

Oil Bankruptcies Leave Lenders With ‘Catastrophic’ Recovery Rate, according to Moody's. 21% Recovery rate. Ouch.

Wars in Iraq, Afghanistan cost almost $5 trillion ... so far. Man, what could we do with $5 Trillion?  

Saturday, August 27, 2016

Why Fischer Contradicted Yellen; Said We'll Have 2 Rate Hikes

Janet Yellen spoke on Friday. She didn't hint at a rate hike in September, gold and the markets soared.

Three hours later, Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer came out to say "What Chair Yellen really meant was ..." and completely contracted her.

I don't think it's about gold. I think it's about Treasury yields.

Visit to see more great charts.

(Updated chart)

By the way, Fischer has a history of being full of baloney. The market doesn't remember, but last August he hinted strongly at a September rate hike and it never happened.

Where various Fed governors stand on rate hikes: LINK

Brad DeLong on what Fischer should have said. LINK

Friday, August 26, 2016

Chart of the Day: Gold ETFS

I thew in a materials stock ETF per a request.

Visit to see more great charts.

Have a great day.

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Chart of the Big Squee-ee-eeze in Treasuries ($TLT)

On Arthur Hill offers a great chart of Treasury prices and yield. 
Visit to see more great charts.

(Updated chart)

And here is the link to Arthur Hill's original story, with a lot more charts

Sunday, August 14, 2016

Reynolds American ($RAI) rises from bottom of channel

Just had to make this chart of Reynolds American for work; this is a good place to store it.

Visit to see more great charts.

(Updated chart)

Gold and Silver Percentage Gains This Year

Just had to make this chart for work; I thought I would also share it with you. 

Visit to see more great charts.

(Updated chart)

You're welcome.

Gold Miners ($GDX) Chart Update

Just wanted to update this one from a few weeks ago.

(Updated chart)

Have a great rest of your Sunday. Monday crouches in the bushes like a panther, ready to spring upon us.

Gold Poised for Deeper Pullback -- Get Ready to Buy!

On Monday, August 8th, I told Gold & Resource Profit Hunter subscribers to grab gains on half their Silver Wheaton calls. It was a nice gain.  It was also well-time. Gold and silver went nowhere last week, and could go lower this week.

When I recommended grabbing the gains, the chart I showed Gold & Resource Profit Hunter subscribers was this one ...

Visit to see more great charts.

(Updated chart)

Most people don't look at monthly charts. Most people are missing vital information.

On this monthly chart, you can see that gold has come up against its downtrend. At the same time, it hit overhead Fibonacci resistance. Fib levels are watched by many, many technical traders, and for that reason alone, they must be respected.

This is a one-two combo that has proved significant overhead resistance.

So how low could gold go?

The short-term (technical) levels of support are $1,309, $1,290 and $1,268.

If you are bearish, you will see these as steps on a path much lower.

If you are bullish -- and I am -- these mark potential buying opportunities. And not to be overly dramatic, but this could be the last great buying opportunity before gold really takes off.

As I said, I recommended subscribers grab gains on HALF their SLW calls. Those calls have plenty of time, and we're holding the rest for potentially bigger gains.

Likewise, we'll sit tight on the gold and silver miner stocks in the Gold & Resource Profit Hunter portfolio.  All but the most recently added are up anyway. And this dip should be a bump in the road.

In fact, it may bring us to buying opportunities on other great companies.

I am making my shopping list now. You should be doing the same. We are still in the early stages of this great bull market.

Good luck to us all, and good trades.

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Gold Miners ($GDX) consolidate in a larger uptrend

This helps you keep the recent sideways-to-down action in gold miners in context.

Visit to see more great charts.

Probably my last chart for this week. I'm off to check out a silver mine in Mexico. Cheers!

Picking Gold charts for Upcoming Sprott Resource Conference

I am weighing whether I should include this chart when I speak at the Sprott Natural Resource Symposium on July 27th. The chart shows that the rally in gold (in euro and Canadian dollar terms) began much earlier than the rally in U.S. dollar terms.

The Canadians know this, of course. But how many U.S. citizens who don't know this will be there?

Visit to see more great charts.

(Updated chart)

But even the mighty greenback couldn't hold back the golden tide forever, could it?
(Updated chart)

There are good reasons for this, which I'll explain in my presentation. See you there.

Tuesday, July 5, 2016

Gold Breaks Out

Here's an updated gold chart for you.

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(Updated chart)

My target remains $1,519. Good luck to us all.

Monday, June 27, 2016

Kamikaze Bonds: The 10-Year Yield Goes Into a Death Dive

Here's an update of a chart that I've posted from time to time. Originally I had a much shorter time frame; I had to extend the time frame to find the next level of support.

Visit to see more great charts.

(Updated chart)

If that support breaks, our financial system is seriously working without a net. Look out below.

Gold higher again today. I took three rounds of gains in one of my publications on Friday. Maybe a bit too early? But you know what's wrong with 100%+ gains? Nothing!

Don't be greedy.

That said, I still have other positions in place to ride this next wave higher. And my intermediate-term target on gold remains $1,519. So if you're playing this in anything but short-term, just sit back and enjoy the ride. It could be wild!

Friday, June 24, 2016

Britain, Gold and the Big Surprise Yet to Come

I wrote a story for Energy & Resources Digest today about Britain's Brexit, how that affects gold, and the big surprise I think is yet to come.

You can read that here: Please do click through. 

However, the big surprise was cut out of the story (to keep the focus on gold). So here is the rest of the story, as Paul Harvey would say.


Why Is Everybody Screaming?

Gold aside, many of us will see our investments take a hit today, as global markets sell off. Is the panic justified?

Britain’s economy is 17% of the EU. That’s a little more than France (15%) but less than Germany (19%). So you can see why the Europeans worry. They’re really scared because if Britain can make a Brexit work, that’s a clear sign to other EU members chafing against Germany’s oppressive leadership – Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal – that maybe an exit is the smart move.

The rest of the world is over-reacting. For example, Britain accounts for just 0.5% of the trade of Asian countries. Why are they selling off? It’s a panic, that’s why. Panics can be bought.

Especially since stocks should float higher on a flood of government easy money.

The losers aren’t just British oddsmakers (71% of bets placed were for Britain to leave the EU. Pay up, bookies!). The losers include investment banks and central banks that rely on the easy flow of cash across borders.

Politically, losers include the European Union, and especially Germany. Longer-term, maybe even the U.S.

Why us? Because if Britain can do a “Brexit,” maybe Texas, which has its own loud secessionist movement, can do a “Texit.”

What, you think that can’t happen? Never say never.  Pandora’s Box is open. Nationalist movements are gaining steam. The U.S. Congress is deadlocked and ungovernable. Secessionist referendums here in the U.S. could be next.

What, we already fought that war? Buddy, people never learn.

Is that good for gold? You bet.

This week’s move in gold sure caught the market by surprise. But it’s only a first step.

My intermediate-term target on gold remains $1,519. And my year-end target of $20 on silver is looming closer. I have higher, longer-term targets.

I keep saying pullback can be bought. When gold pulls back again, the babbling heads will tell you it’s done for the year. They were wrong on Trump winning the nomination, wrong on the Brexit vote, and wrong on so many things. Listen to your gut for a change.

My gut tells me that gold is going much higher.

More stories I've written recently ...

Monday, June 20, 2016

Update on Treasury Bond Yields

I recently posted a chart of the $TNX, saying bond yields (as tracked by $TNX) could break down. That's just what happened.

Now, we are seeing a strong rally. It is coming up to former support.

Visit to see more great charts.
(Updated chart)

Maybe the breakdown was false. Or maybe this is a typical test of former support as overhead resistance. And the big move down is yet to come.

Stay tuned.

Friday, June 17, 2016

Why Gold Is Going to Break Out and Go to $1,519

On Thursday, gold rallied to a two-year high of $1,316 per ounce before pulling back. It sure looked like a top. 
(Updated chart)
Let me make a case for why gold is not making a top. In fact, it's coiling up for a breakout.

If gold can close and confirm above $1,300, that will show that traders are betting the Fed will stay stationary until December. And that’s the start of a new rally.

My target in that rally -- just generated yesterday -- is $1,519.

Why is the Fed not raising rates important? Gold doesn’t pay interest. When rates are near zero, the “opportunity cost” of owning gold disappears. 

And just this morning, St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard, who has been very hawkish, just slashed his outlook for rate hikes. Bullard now says low growth and a very low fed funds rate of just 63 basis points will likely remain in place through 2018.

That is a huge shift.

Meanwhile, there is another good reason to own gold. Historically, the yellow metal is a risk-haven repository. In other words, investors scramble to gold for security in uncertain markets. 

Then there is the upcoming vote the United Kingdom will take on whether to leave the European Union. I think the vote is a tempest in a British teapot. Nonetheless, there is a risk that global markets could be thrown into chaos. And that risk is being priced in right now.

Three stories for you on this topic ...

I've made it clear that I am more bullish on silver than gold. And I think miners are the way to play this rally, not the metals.

Good luck and good trades.

Saturday, June 11, 2016

10-Year Yield Breaks Support. Look Out Below!

I wrote a story for the Non-Dollar Report on how zero and negative-yields are helping boost precious metal prices. You can read that here:

And here's an updated version of the chart was in the story. The 10-Year-Yield has broken the first line of support.

(Updated chart)

Will there be follow-through? And what does it mean for the prices of gold and silver? Stay tuned.

Pray for a Pullback. My Targets on Silver: $20 and $25.50

I think precious metals put in a short-term top on Friday. The good news, it was great to grab remaining gains on Barrick calls. The better news; if this IS a short-term top, we'll see a correction. And that will be a buying opportunity.

Why? Because ...
  • Precious metals have just come out of a 4 1/2-year long bear market. The bull market could last 3 to 5 to 7 years.
  • There is a global supply/demand squeeze, especially for silver. By that I mean mine production has peaked, and demand is rising. For gold, it is primarily investment demand. For silver, it is investment and industrial demand.
  • The zero- and negative-interest rate policies of the world's central banks lift a huge weight off gold and silver. There is little to no carrying cost of holding physical metal.
Here's what the technical analysis "voodoo" I use gives as targets on silver now.

Visit to see more great charts.

(Updated chart)

Your time frame may vary.

We'll see what happens. Good luck to us all.

Oh, and for your viewing pleasure, here is molten silver being poured into dore bars at a mine I just visited in Mexico.

Friday, June 3, 2016

Lurulu: Death, Destiny & the Lifelong Quest

Here's an article I wrote in 2013 ...

Posted on  
Sean Brodrick
Every week in this space, we look at ways you can make more money to make your financial dreams come true.
But this week, I want to take a little bit of a departure from our usual conversations about gold, silver, oil and natural gas to examine a valuable lesson I learned from one of my other passions … one I think you can appreciate and, I hope, benefit from in your investing and personal pursuits.
On May 26, Jack Vance, a grand master of science fiction, passed away at the age of 96. Our world is poorer for his passing. He leaves a wealth of writing to his legion of fans, and what a fascinating life he led.
When I call him a “grand master of science fiction,” you might peg him as a writer of cheap pulps. Well, maybe he was — but oh, what a glorious treasure every cheap paperback contained. In fact, I would put Mr. Vance on par with the greatest writers of the 20th century, along with Ernest Hemingway, F. Scott Fitzgerald, Stephen King and others.
Today, I’m not going to talk too much about his great stories, like the five-volume revenge-fueled “Demon Princes” or “The Dying Earth,” a series of novels and stories in which the sun has dimmed and magic has been re-established as a dominant force. Sure, those books changed the face of fantasy fiction forever. But you can find those on
Instead, I’m going to talk about something you CAN’T find, at least not easily. But it’s something we all should be looking for. Vance certainly was.
The concept is a theme in his last two books, the duology “Ports of Call”/“Lurulu.” That concept islurulu itself.
Vance was a writer who liked to invent words, and lurulu was one of them. While it is never strictly defined, characters allude to it as achieving your heart’s desire … sort of. It’s a bit of fate, a bit of destiny; all that AND the fulfillment of a quest.
As investors, we identify with those desires. Whether we want a speedier path to retirement … a second home in a country we’ve always loved or wanted to visit … or the ability to make sure our kids and grandkids can pursue their dreams without fearing how they’ll afford them … each day we work toward achieving our own personal lurulu.
As one character in the book says:
“‘Fate,’ ‘destiny’ and ‘lurulu’ are not synonymous. ‘Fate’ is dark and ponderous; ‘destiny’ is more like a beautiful sunset. In speaking of ‘lurulu,’ however, language of this kind is not useful; lurulu is personal, it is like hope, or a wistful longing more real than a dream.”
“Ports of Call”/”Lurulu” is ostensibly about a picaresque group of crew and passengers aboard a tramp space freighter shuttling from planet to planet. They meet amazing people and have weird adventures.
I liked this book in particular because it is capitalistic; many science fiction writers are more-terrified of economics than they are of any bug-eyed monsters.
Vance published the last of these books when he was 88. It is built around an old man’s truth, one that is no less profound for being simple: that life is a voyage whose significance is not to be found in the arrival but in the journeying.
Of the main characters, one burns for justice, one wants to save his mother from a scoundrel, one shifts his desire (or lurulu) from one thing to another, and one denies the very concept of destiny while revealing his deepest desires in a conversation with the one man who bested him. After one character achieves his goal — he gains wealth beyond most men’s dreams — he finds it not satisfactory in the least.
That’s because lurulu lies not in the amassing of wealth, but what you do with that wealth. It is here and now, in the warmth of friendship, in shared encounters that celebrate life. It is the awareness to grasp fleeting moments and appreciate them to the fullest.
Vance was going blind when he wrote these books. What an ironic fate for a writer and a lover of books. But he’d battled nearsightedness his whole life.
Getting Around the Rules
In his youth, Vance worked in a cannery, on a gold dredge and in many other trades to support himself while periodically attending college before the outbreak of World War II.
Weak eyesight prevented military service. So, in 1943, he memorized an eye chart and became an able seaman in the Merchant Marine.
I like that Vance got around the rules by using his brain. It reminds me of “Cugel the Clever,” Vance’s most famous creation, an absolute scoundrel who defeats much more powerful beings through his wits alone.
The stint in the Merchant Marines inspired a love of boating for the rest of Vance’s life. Boats, ships — and spaceships — were often themes in his work. In real life, he built a houseboat with science fiction authors Frank Herbert and Poul Anderson, and he went on at least one round-the-world voyage.
Vance and his wife settled in Oakland in a house that included a hand-carved wooden ceiling from Kashmir. He loved art but detested modern art; was spiritual but spoofed religion mercilessly; lived by a moral code but painted bureaucrats as incompetent bunglers. You would have liked him.
He wrote for the pulp magazines of the 1940s and ‘50s. He went to Hollywood and was a screenwriter for the “Captain Video” TV series. Vance was a lover of Dixieland and traditional jazz. A lifelong musician, he released a jazz album just two months ago.
Hugos, Nebula, Edgar, Oh My!
And then there were his accomplishments in books. He won two Hugo Awards, a Nebula Award, the Jupiter Award, the World Fantasy Award, and an Edgar. That’s right, Vance wrote mysteries, too.
Vance’s stories featured great plots — but his shining quality was that he was a virtuoso wordsmith. No one was more adept at creating a strange landscape and populating it with bizarre people in only a few paragraphs.
The most amazing thing to me was that Vance’s heroes could be horrible scoundrels, or killers bent on revenge, and yet you’d still find yourself rooting for them. Many writers try to pull off that trick, and they fail miserably. Vance did it without breaking a sweat; he put the “master” in “grandmaster.”
A Life Well-Lived
Vance was so influential that in 2009, 24 of the biggest names of fantasy and science fiction — George R.R. Martin, Neil Gaiman, Robert Silverberg, Tanith Lee, Mike Resnick and many more — put together a collection of stories called “Songs of the Dying Earth.” Set in Vance’s Dying Earth world, these are incredible stories — it’s impossible to find a stinker in the bunch.
And with each story, every single one of these best-selling authors enclosed an essay talking about how Vance’s writing had influenced, entertained and enthralled them as a young reader and writer.
Jack Vance has a treasury of memories to take to his grave, and he managed to give his readers a wealth of reading experiences along the way. I’ve lost count of his books.
“Lurulu” is not Vance’s best book, but the concept of lurulu — the idea of finding your real reason for living —  is something none of us should be without.
Happiness is not in the arriving. Happiness is in the getting there. It is the experiences you share with your friends. It is not the accumulation of gold, but the golden memories you build along the way.
Jack Vance’s productivity, sense of wonder and sheer love of life should be an inspiration to us all. I hope you read his books.
And most of all, I hope you find your lurulu.
All the best,

Monday, May 16, 2016

The US Dollar Is at a Make-or-Break Point

I'm traveling to Washington, D.C., this week to present my best case for a new publication to cover precious metals miners, developers and explorers. We'll see. In the meantime ...

The U.S. dollar enjoyed a nice rally last week. But unless it can break out this week, the rally is probably done.

Visit to see more great charts.
(Updated chart)

I would keep the following points in mind ...
  • Fed officials have warned that markets are "wrong" to expect just one rate hike for 2016. 
  • CPI data comes out on Tuesday, and inflation probably strengthened in the last measured period.
  • FOMC minutes from the April meeting come out on Wednesday.This will be scrutinized for hawkish speak that indicates a June or July rate hike is imminent.
  • Goldman Sachs says the oil bear market is "over" due to falling U.S. production and chaos in select OPEC members.
However ...
  • Economic numbers out of China are downright lousy.
  • Earnings for S&P 500 continue to deflate. This is due in part to a too-strong U.S. dollar.
  • What's more, headline earnings cover carnage in GAAP earnings. For example, Adjusted net income at S&P 500 companies rose 6.6% to $840 billion last year. Under GAAP, income at those same companies actually declined 11% to $562 billion.
The wild card is we'll see actual economic growth numbers (or lack of growth) for Q2 this week. That might tip the Fed's hand.

If the dollar does continue to rally, we might get the buying opportunity in gold that everyone has been waiting for. On the other hand, gold miners are one of the few things working in the market now, so there might not be as much of a dip as some anticipate.

Good luck to us all, and good trades.

Thursday, May 12, 2016

Gold Miners & Silver Miners Leave S&P 500 in the Dust

A performance chart for gold, gold miners, silver miners and the S&P 500.

Visit to see more great charts.
(Updated chart)

There is always a bull market somewhere, right?

Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Check out this chart from for XRA

This chart I did on XRA back in April worked out well. Huzzah for technical analysis.

Visit to see more great charts.

Monday, May 2, 2016

$GOLD Charts a Course for Higher Prices

It sure looks like we're seeing an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern developing in $GOLD. My target is $1,474.

Visit to see more great charts.

(Updated chart)

For an inverse head and shoulders pattern to work, heavy volume on the breakout through the neckline is a must. And that’s just what we’re seeing now. Remember, “volume should move with trends, not against them.”

After breaking neckline resistance, the price target is found by measuring the distance from the neckline to the bottom of the head. This distance is then added to the point at which the pattern breaches the neckline to reach a price target. Any price target should serve as a rough guide. Other factors (previous resistance levels, etc) should be considered.

They say “every sunken ship has a chart.” So don’t bet all your pin money on this.

On the bright side, chart analysis CAN be an indicator of potential price action. As a reminder, here’s the chart I sent around in February, when the gold bull market first started.

We'll see if it works out this time. A weaker dollar certainly helps gold go higher, and I made the case for the dollar going much lower in a previous post.

Good luck and good trades.

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

4 Bullish Stories on Gold ... Barking Dragons, Islamic Law & More!

Here are my latest stories on the bullish case for metals AND miners.

Dragons Are Barking for the U.S. Dollar … and that’s good news for gold.

Yes, This Rally in Gold and Miners Is for Real … Asset Strategies International COO Rich Checkan sat down for an exclusive interview with me. He makes some great points for a precious metals rally. I’ve illustrated his points with two eye-popping charts.

Why Islamic Law Is About to Send Gold Prices Soaring … the mainstream media is asleep at the switch AGAIN, missing one of the biggest fundamental changes in the global gold markets.

China Is Hunting for Gold in Your Backyard … in my exclusive interview with Sprott U.S. Holdings CEO Rick Rule, he explains why the Chinese are buying up the best miners at hefty premiums.

Sunday, April 17, 2016

US Dollar Ready to Plunge ... and Send Gold Higher

This chart is for technical analysts only. If you believe technical analysis is bullshit, go read something else.

A weekly chart of the US Dollar Index shows it is in real trouble. Get a gander of the chart, then I'll explain.

Visit to see more great charts.
(Updated chart)

1. The recent decline in the U.S. dollar. Any fool can see that. But that decline brings the green back to ...
2. Important support. The dollar index is at multi-month lows. This must hold. If it doesn't ...
3. First Fibonacci support.
4. Second Fibonacci support.
5. Third Fibonacci support.
6. Weekly Aroon trend indicator just gave a powerful sell signal.  Most of you are unfamiliar with Aroon, though, so ...
7. Momentum, as measured by weekly RSI, is definitely weakening.

If you want fundamentals that might prompt a move below support, here are some things I am watching.

Saudi Arabia threatens to sell off U.S. assets if Congress passes a bill that would allow the Saudi government to be held responsible for any role in the September 11 attacks. (link)

That's up to $750 billion in U.S. assets. Including lots of Treasuries. Foreign ownership of U.S. Treasuries is one of the things supporting the U.S. dollar.

And the Saudis have reason to be worried. 60 Minutes just did a segment on Saudi involvement in 9/11.

Estimates of U.S. GDP Growth Are in The Tank. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 0.3% on April 13. ZERO POINT THREE PERCENT!

Sure, first-quarter GDP was weak last year, too. But 0.3%. Great googly-moogly! That is awful.

Maybe things will pick up in the second quarter. Sure. As the oil patch collapses in on itself, keep telling yourself that.

The point is, with economic growth this weak, I don't see how the Fed can raise interest rates. The Fed recently cut its number of intended hikes this year from four to two. How does NONE sound to you? Sounds about right to me. And maybe the market is getting a whiff of that, too.

Economic Indicators are Weakening. Monthly data for March featured a big decrease in industrial production and capacity utilization.  Retail sales also fell, with a slump in vehicle sales getting most of the blame. Producer prices decreased.

I'm not saying we're going into recession. I'm saying this is more evidence the Fed can't raise rates. That cuts more support out from underneath the dollar.

So what does this have to do with gold? Easy. Gold is priced in dollars. Usually, when the dollar moves in one direction, gold moves in another. It's what I call the "seesaw of pain." 

For 4 1/2-years, gold was on the painful end of that see-saw. Now, that see-saw may be about to come slamming down on the dollar's head.

Monday, April 11, 2016

Gold Breaks Out from Bull Flag

Gold breaks out from its bull flag. Here's a weekly chart. I think it's going to run to between $1,450 and $1,500.

Visit to see more great charts.
(Updated chart)

So how do you play this?

You could play it with the SPDR Gold Trust Shares. But I wouldn't.

You could play it with a leveraged gold fund. That's an interesting idea.

You could play it with a fund of large-cap gold miners (GDX) or smaller-cap, junior miners (GDXJ).  Those ideas are getting better and better. That's because miners are leveraged to gold.

But you also might consider the Global X Silver Miners (NYSE: SIL). Here is a daily chart.

(Updated chart)

I'm not your investment adviser. Do your own due diligence before you buy anything. Buying something without doing research just because some guy on the Internet talks about it is not a sound investment strategy.

Friday, April 8, 2016

Silver & Gold Miners Crush the S&P 500. I'm So Excited

Here is a chart from my presentation on precious metals at the upcoming Investment U conference in Carlsbad, California.

Visit to see more great charts.
Updated chart

I got plenty more charts where that came from, buckaroo.

Are you excited? 'Cause I'm so excited, I should go on tour with the Pointer Sisters.

Tuesday, April 5, 2016

IMF: 'Dangers to World Economy Are Rising': Here's How to Play It

This post has to go work elsewhere. Duty calls.
In lieu of a piece about the IMF, I offer you the music of Trombone Shorty.

Friday, April 1, 2016

GLD takes a bearish turn

Our first clue that gold was in trouble was the weak, low-volume rally after Fed Chair Janet Yellen basically opened the sluice gates on free-money this week.

When that's the best that gold can rally under those circumstances, it's in trouble. Here's a chart of the SPDR Gold Trust Shares (GLD).

Visit to see more great charts.
(Updated chart)

Sure enough, we are seeing real follow-through now. 

The bulls will point out that gold is touching its 50-day moving average, which could be support. That may be. However ...
  • RSI is falling again after trying to find support. That's bearish.
  • Aroon just gave a bearish signal.

It would not surprise me to see the GLD test first Fibonacci support at 113.97 (roughly 114, draw it with a thick crayon). I have marked that line (1) on the chart. That lines up with a peak from last October, which is now support.

That might hold. 

If it doesn't, then GLD could test a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 108.78. I have marked that line (2) on the chart. That is close to the 200-day moving average as well. And that would be a 6% decline from the recent price.

The 50% retracement offers no support that I can see. So, it's 38% or 61%.

We'll have to see how this plays out. Demand from China, India and ETFs will be crucial. Statements from various Fed governors will probably only confuse the situation (and traders).

Recently, investors have used gold ETFs to load up on gold despite gold's bumpy moves. It will be interesting to see if investors view this pullback as a buying opportunity. 

Good luck out there. And have a great weekend.

Friday, March 25, 2016

Is the S&P 500 Poised for Another Fall?

As has been pointed out by the Silver Doctors and others, the S&P 500 has retraced the path it took after its 11.2% plunge in August.

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(Updated chart)

Naturally, the question becomes: Is history about to repeat itself? Is the S&P 500 in a big, ranging market?

Some developments that add to the bear case:

Fed officials back talking about rate hikes again -- this time in April -- after blinking at the March FOMC meeting AND lowerign their forecast for the number of rate hikes this year.

Also, as the Wall Street Journal tells us, "Corporate profits after tax, without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, fell at an 8.1% pace last quarter from the third. That was largest quarterly decline since the first quarter of 2011. Profits fell 3.3% in third quarter from the second. On a year-over-year basis, corporate profits declined 3.6% in the fourth quarter."

U.S. GDP growth came in at 1.4% in the fourth quarter. That's pretty anemic, but it also might be the new normal.

One more chart. This is of forward S&P 500 earnings.

Is the S&P 500 overpriced? I don't know. But it's certainly not cheap. 

Don't worry too much about this over the weekend. Have a wonderful Easter.

Sunday, March 20, 2016

Coming to Make-or-Break Time for S&P 500

Here's an update on a chart that I've been following since January 15 on this blog and on before that. You can see that the S&P 500 is coming up to strong overhead resistance.Visit to see more great charts.
(Updated chart)

What happens there is anybody's guess. It's good to see that strength in the market is broadening; maybe that's what the S&P 500 needs to push higher. But we are approaching what has been overhead resistance since the start of 2015.

Strength broadens in the NYSE

Something from the Stockcharts Chartwatchers newsletter that I thought I would share with you.
NYSE New Highs ($NYHGH) exceeded 250 for the first time since March 2015. This means the rally is broadening within the NYSE as more stocks record new highs. Utilities, consumer staples, industrials and REITs accounted for most of the new highs.
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We are also seeing the percentage of NYSE stocks trading above their 200-day moving average moving up to challenge the fourth quarter high around 40% after bottoming in January in oversold territory below 20%.

Monday, March 14, 2016

One of the Biggest Bargains in Biotech Looks Bullish Here

Gilead Sciences ($GILD) has been a bargain for quite some time. This company apparently does not know what to do with its piles o' money, and it pays a nice dividend. Now, its chart is starting to look very good.

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(Updated chart)

Gilead just popped above its 50-day moving average. And it looks ready to break out of that ascending triangle. All on a down-day for the market. 

I guess we'll see if this chart pattern works out.

GDX -- The Big Trend Has Changed

I wanted to post the monthly chart of the Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) that went with my recent story ("The Most Bullish Gold Chart You'll See All Year") that ran on March 8th. prefers line charts, I prefer candlestick charts. So, here's the candlestick chart version for later reference.

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(Updated chart)

This chart shouldn't change too quickly, being a monthly chart. It is very bullish.

Good luck to us all.

Saturday, March 5, 2016

Keep Your Eye on this Gold Chart

I gave Oxford Club Chairman Circle members a briefing on gold this past week, aboard the Crystal Symphony. It's time for an updated chart.

This is a chart of the price of gold through Friday. By the numbers ...

1. We can see that gold broke out of a bull pennant pattern. On Thursday, it closed at $1264.90. That is above the top of the "flagpole" that the pennant flies on -- that top being $1263.90. So, that's very bullish. This can be seen as confirmation of the bullish pennant. And that would give us a price target of $1,386.

However, the next day, Friday, gold closed lower at $1,260.10. So we do not have a weekly confirmation of the breakout. I'd consider this bull pennant half-hearted (for now).

2. The 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average. The question now is, "is the 200-day moving average rising?" That's not as simple a question as you might think. It all depends on how you compute the 200-day simple moving average. And there is nothing simple about a simple moving average.

Bloomberg computes the 200-day MA as rising. Stockcharts does not. Finviz agrees with Bloomberg, at least on the GLD

Do you see how confusing technical analysis can be? And the question is important, because a "golden cross", an important technical signal, occurs only when both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are rising.

I think we'll call this one a "maybe."

3. There was strong "sell" volume on Friday. I think this is traders positioning themselves for a potential pullback next week. Still, not a confirmation of the bullish move.

4. RSI, a measure of momentum, fails to confirm the bullish move.

5. Aroon showed that gold's bullish trend started in early January. That trend remains in place until proven otherwise.

My take-away from all this is that we haven't seen a clear breakout in gold yet. I think we could be in for a pullback/correction to the dominant bullish trend.

One interesting note: The Prospectors & Dealer's Association of Canada (PDAC), the biggest mining conference in the world, is going on right now. It ends March 9th. Usually, mining stocks (including gold miners) sell off after the conference ends. So perhaps we'll see weakness until that runs its course.

But overall, I think both the trend and recent action in gold is very positive. I would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.