Monday, January 26, 2015

Today's Must-See Chart #2: Brent Crude Oil

Here's a monthly chart of the international crude oil benchmark, $BRENT. You can see that it is coming down to support.

I realize the supply/demand picture for $Brent has changed since it tested support around $43 and $40 years ago. However, there are many technical analysts in the market.  We can expect buyers to come in and defend those levels.

And while there could be panic spikes to the downside, I think $40 is probably where $brent will base this year.  But we'll see.

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The US oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, trades at a discount to Brent, but that is changing. And Canada's oil benchmark trades at an even deeper discount.

People are trying to call a bottom in crude oil right now. Most recently, OPEC General Secretary Abdullah al-Badri made vague comments that they "will see some rebound very soon", based on nothing but his own intuition, I guess. Also, he said oil prices could reach $200 per barrel if there's a lack of investment following this price slump. This reversed oil's earlier price decline, when it seemed to be drifting lower (again) after new Saudi regent, King Salman Bin Abdulaziz, pledged to maintain the old king's policies. Since those policies seem to be to pump as much oil as they want, those comments hurt oil.

So who's right?  al-Badri or Abdulaziz? 

I'm seeing lots of articles on oil; certainly "bottom" speculation is high. Some may say that such a media frenzy is itself a sign of a bottom. I'm not so sure. What we need to see is global supply go down and global demand go up. THEN we can start bottom-calling.

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