Wednesday, January 20, 2016

We Are Closer to the End of the Bear Market Than the Beginning

Here's what I posted on my Facebook page for Oxford Club this morning: 

Another bad start for the markets. This is driven by worsening earnings expectations, compounded by investor panic over plunging oil prices, China's market chaos, and more.

On earnings: The final numbers for the fourth quarter aren’t in yet. But as I write this, the S&P 500 is expected to report a 5.7% earnings decline for the fourth quarter. That would represent the third straight quarterly drop in profits. And it’s the first time the S&P 500 has seen that since the first three quarters of 2009.

Still, as I posted just a few days ago, by the time Wall Street realizes it is in a bear market, it will likely be almost over, if history is any guide.


And consumers have $17 billion more dollars jingling in their pockets, just due to the year-over-year drop in gasoline prices alone.

In fact, I believe the resurgent consumer has enough firepower to keep the U.S. out of recession.

Consider yourself blessed that you're not Canadian, with their currency rapidly turning into Monopoly money

It will likely be a tough day in the market. Better days are coming. Be ready.

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