Bullish gaps in the GDX usually have follow-through, and MACD gives us a bullish cross-over for the first time since July. You could put a price target at either the September high or the 200-day moving average, which is coming down, but let's say 31.25. The trailing, close-only stop would be at around 22.70.
So, there's 8% downside risk, and the 31.25 target gives us 26% upside. Half position only.
And for those daring enough for single-stock risk ...
B2 Gold is one of my favorite miners. It hasn't broken out yet, but its gap higher today to its downtrend raises the possibility of a follow-through.
B2Gold has great management, is a low-cost miner, has three operating mines in Nicuaragua and the Philippines, and plans to have a fourth mine coming online in 2015. Production is expected to grow from around 370,000 ounces of gold per year in 2013 to over 550,000 ounces of gold per year by 2015. The company also has money to burn, or at least enough to carry them through hard times.
At at 1.5 million shares a day, this stock is very easy to trade in and out of. And also hard (or at least harder) to push around than some other small-caps.
My initial price target is 3.40. The trailing, close-only stop is at around 2.20. That gives 44% upside, and 6% downside risk. Very acceptable. Half position only.
If gold continues higher, I'll have more picks tomorrow. But I really want to make more buys in energy, and I have a couple banks on my shopping list as well. Mañana.
I'm not your investment adviser, and you should be doing your own due diligence. What works for me may not work for you. Don't buy something just because some idiot on the Internet likes it.
That said, good luck and good trades, whatever you buy.
If gold continues higher, I'll have more picks tomorrow. But I really want to make more buys in energy, and I have a couple banks on my shopping list as well. Mañana.
I'm not your investment adviser, and you should be doing your own due diligence. What works for me may not work for you. Don't buy something just because some idiot on the Internet likes it.
That said, good luck and good trades, whatever you buy.
B2 is definitely a great company. But those reversals on the big white candles make for one very strong downtrend. Maybe you want to own B2 if you're an investor, but if you're a trader the chart still has a lot to prove.
ReplyDeleteRemember, gold went up in electronic trading with a bit of a downward over-reaction in USD.
Gold going up on a thin market means nothing more than some trader wanting to drive it higher without fighting liquidity, the same as when gold dives in the electronic market.
And the USD move to me looks like a dumb one-day over-reaction to a news headline.
Given those, I'd suggest sitting back and watching for a week or two and being very demanding of confirmation, before buying any of this stuff back.
Also, your price target requires busting through three pivots of the downtrend - $2.45 or so, $2.85 or so, and $2.95 or so. And the last two are associated with the SMA(200) which might therefore act as more resistance.
DeleteSo your risk-return isn't really 44:6, as the downward move is still more likely while the upward move will need a lot of fighting to get to your target.
The risk is on the money invested, not the odds of success. I admit that's not clear, but it's a free blog tracking my thoughts. Maybe you're right. We should know by the end of the day/week.
ReplyDelete