Monday, April 28, 2014

The Relationship Between Gold and The Dollar

I'm watching the U.S. dollar very closely here. Check out this chart from for the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP)

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(Updated chart

You can see that the U.S. dollar drifts higher, then breaks lower, over and over again. Most recently, bullish action in the euro is weighing on the dollar.

Other thoughts ...
  • Since gold is priced in dollars, more weakness in the dollar should be supportive for gold. It's worrisome that gold hasn't done better considering the slump in the dollar. But maybe the price in New York has yet to catch up with the fundamentals.
  • And to be sure, all eyes are on the FOMC meeting this week.
  • Speaking of gold, the most recent news out of China can be seen as a positive. The latest figures from Hong Kong suggest that gold demand in China is yet again heading for a new record in 2014.
  • However, in India, farmers are concerned over a weak monsoon, which would drastically affect their crops. And that is probably dragging on gold.

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