Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Must See Charts on Solar, Recession Triggers and Gold Miners

Here are some charts and stories you need to read.

While You Were Getting Worked Up Over Oil Prices, This Just Happened to Solar

After years of struggling against cheap natural gas prices and variable subsidies, solar electricity is on track to be as cheap or cheaper than average electricity-bill prices in 47 U.S. states -- in 2016, according to a Deutsche Bank report published this week.

Solar has already reached grid parity in 10 states that are responsible for 90 percent of U.S. solar electricity production. In those states alone, installed capacity growth will increase as much as sixfold over the next three to four years.

The chart below shows the price of energy sources since the late 1940s. The extreme outlier, of course, is solar, which only recently became an expensive blip in the energy marketplace. It will soon undercut even the cheapest fossil fuels in many regions of the planet, including poorer nations where billion-dollar coal plants aren’t always practical.

Solar will be the world’s biggest single source of energy by 2050.

Projects Canceled as Oil Price Drops
The drop in oil prices has led to about 22 projects being canceled this year, principally in Canada and the Arctic. Still, traders are betting on a big rebound in the oil price. OPEC next meets on November 27th.

Morgan Stanley: Freight Cycle Favors Shippers Over Truckers

Barge capacity and rail capacity are set to expand the most according to a recent note from Morgan Stanley.

ROSENBERG: Bear Markets Don't Just Happen — They're Caused By These Two Conditions.

"The reality is that bear markets do not just pop out of the air," he wrote. "They are caused by tight money, recessions, or both. These conditions do not apply, nor will they until 2016 at the earliest."

Based on the trends in the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, a recession is "at least two years away," Rosenberg said. "That is one peg — the expansion being sustained. The other is the Fed policy, and any actual rate hikes now seem to be more of a 2015 than a 2016 story."

Worst Chart of the Day: Gold Miners

Read it and weep ...

(Updated chart)

Some stories on the yellow metal ...

No Love for Gold: Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products fell 1.8 metric tons to 1,652.1 tons yesterday, remaining at a five-year low. And sentiment in the gold markets is terrible and getting worse, says Mark Hulbert.

On the other hand, demand for gold in India is surging as festival season gets underway.In September alone, India imported $3.75 billion worth of gold, a 450 per cent jump from year-ago levels. And Russia's state gold reserves are at their highest level in two decades. And despite slowing down, the Chinese seem to be buying a lot of gold.

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