Friday, June 24, 2016

Britain, Gold and the Big Surprise Yet to Come

I wrote a story for Energy & Resources Digest today about Britain's Brexit, how that affects gold, and the big surprise I think is yet to come.

You can read that here: Please do click through. 

However, the big surprise was cut out of the story (to keep the focus on gold). So here is the rest of the story, as Paul Harvey would say.


Why Is Everybody Screaming?

Gold aside, many of us will see our investments take a hit today, as global markets sell off. Is the panic justified?

Britain’s economy is 17% of the EU. That’s a little more than France (15%) but less than Germany (19%). So you can see why the Europeans worry. They’re really scared because if Britain can make a Brexit work, that’s a clear sign to other EU members chafing against Germany’s oppressive leadership – Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal – that maybe an exit is the smart move.

The rest of the world is over-reacting. For example, Britain accounts for just 0.5% of the trade of Asian countries. Why are they selling off? It’s a panic, that’s why. Panics can be bought.

Especially since stocks should float higher on a flood of government easy money.

The losers aren’t just British oddsmakers (71% of bets placed were for Britain to leave the EU. Pay up, bookies!). The losers include investment banks and central banks that rely on the easy flow of cash across borders.

Politically, losers include the European Union, and especially Germany. Longer-term, maybe even the U.S.

Why us? Because if Britain can do a “Brexit,” maybe Texas, which has its own loud secessionist movement, can do a “Texit.”

What, you think that can’t happen? Never say never.  Pandora’s Box is open. Nationalist movements are gaining steam. The U.S. Congress is deadlocked and ungovernable. Secessionist referendums here in the U.S. could be next.

What, we already fought that war? Buddy, people never learn.

Is that good for gold? You bet.

This week’s move in gold sure caught the market by surprise. But it’s only a first step.

My intermediate-term target on gold remains $1,519. And my year-end target of $20 on silver is looming closer. I have higher, longer-term targets.

I keep saying pullback can be bought. When gold pulls back again, the babbling heads will tell you it’s done for the year. They were wrong on Trump winning the nomination, wrong on the Brexit vote, and wrong on so many things. Listen to your gut for a change.

My gut tells me that gold is going much higher.

More stories I've written recently ...

No comments:

Post a Comment