First, let's look at an updated chart of gold, one that I originally published on August 31. At the time, I said gold was channeling higher, but it had hit resistance and was overbought. A test of the support zone between $1,325 and $1,350 seemed likely. And today ...
We are working our way down to that support zone ... but we may see lower prices yet. Be patient, and let's see where gold bottoms. Don't try to tell it what to do.
Now, how about the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF, the GDX? On September 4th, I talked about about its short-term bearish signals, and some support levels for this basket of big miners ...
You can see the GDX dropped to one of those support levels (the 50% retracement) yesterday. As I said back on the 4th, it would not surprise me to see it test the 25.60 area. But maybe support will hold at present levels. We'll see how it goes.
Considering that Indian official gold imports dropped 95% in August, this is actually some good strength in gold and miners. Though really, I expect the "unofficial" (smuggled) gold imports are off the charts. Yep, Indian and Nepalese "Han Solos" are making fortunes as gold smugglers.
Just don't jettison the cargo, Han. You know that ticks Jabba off. He'll send Greedo after you.
And Bloomberg reports that Goldman Sachs says Fed Tapering will spur more gold selling. Considering that Goldman was saying "sell-sell-sell" gold in Q2, and then Goldman bought record amounts of gold in that quarter, I expect they'll do the same this time.
I mean really -- does Goldman Sachs think we can't remember what they did a couple months ago? Sheesh!
Meanwhile, Jesse has been all over the story of how Comex deliverable gold bullion is dropping to ludicrously low levels. What the heck is going on there, eh? It sure seems like those who own the gold refuse to sell it at the artificially low price the exchange has finagled. I wonder how that will end.
As Jesse might say, "stand and deliver."
I find more interesting action in solar, oil, natural gas and other select natural resources and markets right now. But the big trend in gold and silver remains. Good luck, and good trades to us all.
Honest question: when you set your points to calculate Fib levels, are you supposed to use the full candle, or just the closing prices?
ReplyDeleteSome smart market guy, I forget who, says he only ever uses opening and closing prices for his charts, because "these prices are where the market has to put their money where their mouth is".
If you think about it, when you have an intraday high or low that gets cancelled out by subsequent action, it's as if the market is saying "we feel that price was invalid, so we're going to go back to a more sensible price".
So for your GDX chart, $30.40 or so would be the high that you use to calculate Fibs.
What's your opinion?
That's a good question. People I respect do it both ways. Strictly speaking, "old school" technicians only use the close of a session. However, I've never been rule-bound in my technical analysis. I find one of the biggest problems in TA is that people develop very strict rules, then the market changes its behavior, and those people don't adapt, and they lose bagloads of money.
ReplyDeleteAnother way of looking at it is just to keep your reference points consistent -- so, you should either do candle body to candle body, wick to wick, or close to close.
If you'd like to find out more on Fibonacci, this article hits some points: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/11/fibonacci-rules.asp
In this particular case, I'm illustrating a point. If you want to go by strict TA analysis, and use closing prices only, the chart looks like this: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p01433496173&a=314780728
I hope that helps. Keep up the good work on your blog at http://myownmarketnarrative.blogspot.com/, by the way, I read it and like it.