Gold Miners ($GDX) consolidate in a larger uptrend

This helps you keep the recent sideways-to-down action in gold miners in context.

(Updated chart)

Probably my last chart for this week. I'm off to check out a silver mine in Mexico. Cheers!

Picking Gold charts for Upcoming Sprott Resource Conference

I am weighing whether I should include this chart when I speak at the Sprott Natural Resource Symposium on July 27th. The chart shows that the rally in gold (in euro and Canadian dollar terms) began much earlier than the rally in U.S. dollar terms.

The Canadians know this, of course. But how many U.S. citizens who don't know this will be there?



(Updated chart)

But even the mighty greenback couldn't hold back the golden tide forever, could it?

(Updated chart)

There are good reasons for this, which I'll explain in my presentation. See you there.

Gold Breaks Out

Here's an updated gold chart for you.





(Updated chart)

My target remains $1,519. Good luck to us all.

Kamikaze Bonds: The 10-Year Yield Goes Into a Death Dive

Here's an update of a chart that I've posted from time to time. Originally I had a much shorter time frame; I had to extend the time frame to find the next level of support.



(Updated chart)

If that support breaks, our financial system is seriously working without a net. Look out below.

Gold higher again today. I took three rounds of gains in one of my publications on Friday. Maybe a bit too early? But you know what's wrong with 100%+ gains? Nothing!

Don't be greedy.

That said, I still have other positions in place to ride this next wave higher. And my intermediate-term target on gold remains $1,519. So if you're playing this in anything but short-term, just sit back and enjoy the ride. It could be wild!

Britain, Gold and the Big Surprise Yet to Come

I wrote a story for Energy & Resources Digest today about Britain's Brexit, how that affects gold, and the big surprise I think is yet to come.

You can read that here: http://energyandresourcesdigest.com/invest-brexit-drives-gold/. Please do click through. 

However, the big surprise was cut out of the story (to keep the focus on gold). So here is the rest of the story, as Paul Harvey would say.

...

Why Is Everybody Screaming?

Gold aside, many of us will see our investments take a hit today, as global markets sell off. Is the panic justified?

Britain’s economy is 17% of the EU. That’s a little more than France (15%) but less than Germany (19%). So you can see why the Europeans worry. They’re really scared because if Britain can make a Brexit work, that’s a clear sign to other EU members chafing against Germany’s oppressive leadership – Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal – that maybe an exit is the smart move.

The rest of the world is over-reacting. For example, Britain accounts for just 0.5% of the trade of Asian countries. Why are they selling off? It’s a panic, that’s why. Panics can be bought.

Especially since stocks should float higher on a flood of government easy money.

The losers aren’t just British oddsmakers (71% of bets placed were for Britain to leave the EU. Pay up, bookies!). The losers include investment banks and central banks that rely on the easy flow of cash across borders.

Politically, losers include the European Union, and especially Germany. Longer-term, maybe even the U.S.

Why us? Because if Britain can do a “Brexit,” maybe Texas, which has its own loud secessionist movement, can do a “Texit.”

What, you think that can’t happen? Never say never.  Pandora’s Box is open. Nationalist movements are gaining steam. The U.S. Congress is deadlocked and ungovernable. Secessionist referendums here in the U.S. could be next.

What, we already fought that war? Buddy, people never learn.

Is that good for gold? You bet.

This week’s move in gold sure caught the market by surprise. But it’s only a first step.

My intermediate-term target on gold remains $1,519. And my year-end target of $20 on silver is looming closer. I have higher, longer-term targets.

I keep saying pullback can be bought. When gold pulls back again, the babbling heads will tell you it’s done for the year. They were wrong on Trump winning the nomination, wrong on the Brexit vote, and wrong on so many things. Listen to your gut for a change.

My gut tells me that gold is going much higher.

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More stories I've written recently ...

Gold Takes a "Monetary Amphetamine"

The "Inconceivable Is About to Happen in Gold"

Why Gold Could Go Ballistic (and How to Play It)

$25.50 Silver Within the Next Year

All Signs Point to a Rising Gold Price

Update on Treasury Bond Yields

I recently posted a chart of the $TNX, saying bond yields (as tracked by $TNX) could break down. That's just what happened.

Now, we are seeing a strong rally. It is coming up to former support.


(Updated chart)

Maybe the breakdown was false. Or maybe this is a typical test of former support as overhead resistance. And the big move down is yet to come.

Stay tuned.

Why Gold Is Going to Break Out and Go to $1,519

On Thursday, gold rallied to a two-year high of $1,316 per ounce before pulling back. It sure looked like a top. 

(Updated chart)
Let me make a case for why gold is not making a top. In fact, it's coiling up for a breakout.

If gold can close and confirm above $1,300, that will show that traders are betting the Fed will stay stationary until December. And that’s the start of a new rally.

My target in that rally -- just generated yesterday -- is $1,519.

Why is the Fed not raising rates important? Gold doesn’t pay interest. When rates are near zero, the “opportunity cost” of owning gold disappears. 

And just this morning, St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard, who has been very hawkish, just slashed his outlook for rate hikes. Bullard now says low growth and a very low fed funds rate of just 63 basis points will likely remain in place through 2018.

That is a huge shift.

Meanwhile, there is another good reason to own gold. Historically, the yellow metal is a risk-haven repository. In other words, investors scramble to gold for security in uncertain markets. 

Then there is the upcoming vote the United Kingdom will take on whether to leave the European Union. I think the vote is a tempest in a British teapot. Nonetheless, there is a risk that global markets could be thrown into chaos. And that risk is being priced in right now.

Three stories for you on this topic ...

• I’ve written extensively on how low interest rates pump up gold prices. You can read the latest here: “Gold Takes Monetary Amphetamine”
• And if you think the move we’ve seen in gold so far is big, think again. Read my recent story, “Why Gold Could Go Ballistic.”
• And what I wrote about silver here also applies to the yellow metal: “Weak Jobs Numbers Mean Silver Will Continue to Rally.”

I've made it clear that I am more bullish on silver than gold. And I think miners are the way to play this rally, not the metals.

Good luck and good trades.