Tuesday, March 11, 2014

How Much Longer Will the Bull Market Run?

There's a lot of market analysis out there today; I want to group some of it one place.

First, Barron's says the "Bull Market Looks Good, But Beware Ides of March". And it includes two charts ...

Barrons used this chart to illustrate that "March has been the home to some important turning points during the past decade and a half."

And then Barrons used this next chart to show that "Last week's upside breakout is still in effect" and technically speaking, the market looks strong.

Read the whole Barrons article.

the Reformed Broker says that talk of the past five years being "easy money" is retarded. Some excerpts ...
What they’re saying now is that “It’s been easy money” over the last five years, and that “anyone could’ve made profits.” Forgive me, but this is complete and total bullshit.
 It’s been one of the hardest environments in market history. Never before have investors’ wounds been so raw. Never before have there been so many voices polluting the popular consciousness with half-baked conspiracy theories and calls for collapse.
In the last five years, investors have dealt with a non-functioning congress, a downgrade of the US Treasury, mass unemployment, exploding deficits, record debt, a possible dissolution of Europe and a slow-motion crash in China and the emerging markets – and that’s before we even get into any specifics. 
And not only have the threats been unprecedented, the amplification of them – thanks to the desperation of the mainstream media for attention coupled with the advent of a whole new chattering class on social media – has been like an orchestra of clanging pots and pans. If you’ve caught some or all of what the market has given us these last five years, you are a hero. 
Read the whole thing

Third, Bespoke Investment Group points out that The bull market is entering its sixth year, and is less than two weeks from taking out the 1982-1987 stretch to become the fifth longest of all time

Bespoke points out in another article that, while investors have turned more bullish, they are far from overly optimistic.

Finally, Bloomberg makes the case that the market is NOT overvalued ...

While the S&P 500’s multiple of 17 times reported earnings is close to the average since 1937, it’s about 40 percent below where it was in 2000, data compiled by Bloomberg and S&P show.
The lower valuation reflects faster earnings expansion. Profits for S&P 500 companies have climbed an average 21 percent a quarter since 2009, almost double the growth rate during the dot-com boom, according to data compiled by S&P.

Go read the whole Bloomberg article.

Certainly it's a mixed picture. For now, we're all keeping our eyes on China .

Good luck and good trades.

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