Monday, July 28, 2014

Chart of the Day: The US Dollar

Here's the chart of the day -- the US Dollar, as tracked by the Powershares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) ...

(Updated chart)

Let's check back on this one later this week, as the US Dollar looks poised for a breakout. You can see that it is testing overhead resistance, and the volume on the up days is larger than the down days.  RSI, a short-term momentum indicator, has given a weekly buy signal.

What's happening with the dollar? The official view, to quote Reuters ...
A string of recent strong economic data has increased speculation that the Fed will hike interest rates sooner than expected.
The U.S. dollar hovered near six-month highs against a basket of major currencies early on Monday, holding on to solid gains made last week.
To that, I'd add that geopolitical troubles and a potential worsening of Europe's slowdown are also making the dollar attractive. Despite the wailings of the Weeping Wandas on Wall Street, the U.S. is still outperforming other major economies. The U.S. economy is expected to expand 1.7% this year (That's a Reuters consensus estimate, I've seen other estimates that are higher), while Eurozone countries are expected to trudge along at 1% growth.

We'll see how the market reacts to jobs data later this week, as well as Fed comments on interest rates. Now, won't this be bad for gold? Potentially. But while gold and the dollar often move in opposite directions, they CAN move in the same direction under the right circumstances. And I think we're in those circumstances now. But we'll see.

1 comment:

  1. Why would anyone choose a bookshelf background with no book titles? I'm not impressed. Decent reporting of accepted opinions.
    Deeper strategic activity may be involved, but I'm glad you recognize the potential for gold to respond independently under certain circumstances. We are poking the bear relentlessly (and w/o proper evidence) and the middle east's declining output is already pressuring oil prices. The New Great Game , a mostly hidden agenda is in a period of higher risk for unanticipated outcomes in my view (from the peanut gallery).